There’s trouble brewing, but it’s not all doom and gloom. The latest data from IWSR, the top beverage industry analyst, paints a mixed picture. Premium gin trend, which had been on a winning streak for years, is now slowing down in key markets like the UK and Spain. The good news? There’s still plenty of promise in other parts of the world—just not in Italy.
The Rise of Premium Gin
Not long ago, the growth of premium gin in the UK and Spain was nothing short of “impressive.” These two countries led a market that seemed unstoppable, generating massive profits since the late 2010s. The real star of the show? Flavored gins, which moved away from traditional botanicals to showcase unexpected notes like fruits, berries, and spices.
The Downturn
But things have taken a sharp turn. In 2023, premium gin sales volumes dropped by a staggering 16% in both Spain and the UK. IWSR predicts a continued annual decline of 5% in these markets through 2028. Given the central role these countries played in the previous gin boom, the global impact is significant. IWSR estimates a 7% decline in premium gin sales worldwide for 2023.
Why Is Premium Gin Struggling?
There are three main reasons behind this decline:
- Flavored Gin Fatigue: Consumers who once loved flavored gins are now easily switching to other spirits like vodka, without losing the fruity or spicy notes they enjoyed in gin.
- Pandemic Boom Gone Bust: The surge in sales during the pandemic wasn’t built to last. As lockdowns ended and people resumed more expensive social lives, the extra cash for premium gin dried up.
- Too Many Brands, Too Little Time: The gin boom brought an explosion of new brands, which overwhelmed many consumers. According to Dan Mettyear, research director at IWSR, “People might have felt swamped by the choices, and that’s led them to pull back.”
Not All Bad News: Markets on the Rise
Despite a global contraction of 7% in 2023, IWSR forecasts a modest 1% annual growth for premium gin between 2024 and 2028. While Spain and the UK are expected to continue declining, other markets are stepping up.
India is leading the charge, showing an 8% increase in 2023 and projected to grow by 5% annually through 2028. Jason Holway, senior research consultant at IWSR, notes that “Gin is the perfect canvas for local flavors and ingredients.” In India, “artisanal gins with a local twist have gained serious momentum since the pandemic.”
Japan is also making waves. The gin market there is still niche but posted a whopping 31% growth in 2023, with predictions of 12% annual growth through 2028. Some shochu makers are even shifting focus from their traditional spirit to gin production.
In the U.S., it’s all about the high-end market. While premium gin sales are dipping, super premium and ultra-premium categories are booming. Sales are expected to grow by 10% annually for super premium and 12% for ultra-premium through 2028.
Premium Gin in the Rest of Europe
Looking beyond the UK and Spain, things are brighter in countries like France and Sweden, where local products are gaining favor with gin lovers. In contrast, Italy is expected to see a decline as consumers shift towards other spirits, especially agave-based options like tequila.
In short, while the days of easy growth for premium gin might be over in some markets, there’s still a lot of excitement elsewhere. The future looks bright for brands that can adapt, focusing on quality, local flavors, and the evolving tastes of younger, more adventurous drinkers.
